President Trump’s First 100 Days: Volatility Meets Crypto Optimism

President Trump’s first 100 days reflect a conflicted landscape, one in which regulatory clarity around crypto accelerates while broader markets contend with external shocks. While the administration’s stance is broadly crypto-friendly, both traditional and crypto markets have faced volatility under the weight of renewed global trade tensions and shifting policy announcements.

A Crypto-Friendly Administration

Since the election, Trump has appointed a slate of crypto-friendly and pro-innovation figures to key government posts: Howard Lutnick as the Secretary of Commerce, Scott Bessent as the Secretary of Treasury, and Paul Atkins was named Chair of the SEC, all seen as strong advocates for financial modernization.

The SEC has also undergone a reversal in its approach to cryptocurrencies. A new task force called Crypto 2.0, led by Commissioner Hester Peirce, was created to engage with the industry and provide regulatory clarity. The stated goals include “draw[ing] clear regulatory lines, provid[ing] realistic paths to registration, craft[ing] sensible disclosure frameworks, and deploy[ing] enforcement resources judiciously.”

The SEC’s first major move was to issue Staff Accounting Bulletin (“SAB”) 122 , which formally rescinded the controversial SAB 121. That prior guidance made it difficult for banks to custody client cryptoassets (for more on SAB 121, read our note from last Fall). The rollback opens the door for financial institutions to re-enter the crypto space, and it was followed by a broader reevaluation of the agency’s existing enforcement agenda. Dozens of the lawsuits filed against crypto firms by the SEC under the previous administration have also been dropped.^[1] However, the scope and complexity of the Commission’s open questions reflect that progress still needs to be made to achieve full regulatory coherence. The process of disentangling years of heavy-handed and unstructured policymaking is underway, but progress will be slow.

On March 6, Trump signed an executive order establishing a national Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (SBR) and a digital asset stockpile, a long-awaited policy move that had been hinted at during last year’s BTC Nashville event. Later that month, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) issued long-overdue guidance clarifying how banks could safely participate in crypto activities. These developments could pave the way for mainstream innovations such as stablecoin-based payments and in-kind ETF creations and redemptions.

The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, took a more cautious step. While it rescinded several anti-crypto policy statements in late April, it left intact its January 27, 2023 guidance that discouraged banks from crypto exposure. This partial reversal created some confusion. While the OCC and FDIC appear aligned in their support for clearer crypto integration, the Fed’s hesitation continues to cast uncertainty over national policy.

Markets React to Trade Policy

Despite the wave of regulatory reform, financial markets remained more sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments than crypto-specific news. In late January, investor sentiment was rattled by the surprise launch of DeepSeek’s new AI model, triggering a brief selloff in AI-related stocks. Yet the broader equity market held steady, with the S&P 500 reaching an all-time high on February 19.

That resilience was short-lived. By early March, global markets reacted sharply to Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. The S&P 500 fell more than 10% over the following weeks, while BTC dropped from its January peak of $106,000 to $82,000.

April brought another wave of volatility. On April 2, Liberation Day, President Trump unveiled the long-anticipated tariff policy: a blanket 10% baseline, with “reciprocal” rates tied to trade deficits on US exports. Both equities and crypto saw severe declines. The S&P recorded one of its worst four-day performances since the 2020 COVID crash. On April 9, markets started to rebound after Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, which was prompted by a weakening economic outlook and rising Treasury yields amid equity market weakness.

By the end of April, most major indices had clawed back their losses, returning to levels seen in mid-February. BTC, notably, ended the month just under $95,000, outperforming both equities and gold. Its strong recovery pointed to BTC’s increasing alignment with its long-term investment narrative as digital gold.

All Eyes on Stablecoin Legislation

Looking ahead, the most important unresolved issue is the path forward on stablecoin legislation, which could create pathways for innovation and enhance the dollar’s distribution and reserve status worldwide. In March and April, the Senate passed the GENIUS Act while the House approved its own version, the STABLE bill, raising hopes for bipartisan alignment. Both bills were designed to set clear guardrails for stablecoin issuance, custody, and compliance, and were widely seen as a priority for the coming months.

However, several Senate Democrats who initially supported the GENIUS Act reversed their votes last week, citing concerns over anti-money laundering enforcement, the role of foreign issuers, national security risks, and the integrity of the financial system. There is also growing debate around how the law will hold issuers accountable if they fail to meet regulatory requirements. These concerns have temporarily slowed momentum.

However, there are signs of renewed progress. As of May 15, senators appear to have reached agreement on the final text of the stablecoin bill, with Democratic lawmakers highlighting key concessions secured from Republicans in the revised draft, which could be brought to a vote next week. We’ll be watching closely for further developments in the Senate.

Conclusion

Trump’s first 100 days in office have revealed a complex push-and-pull between innovation and instability. On one hand, the administration has taken meaningful steps to reorient the US regulatory framework around crypto, reversing years of restrictive policies and setting the stage for long-term engagement. On the other, its confrontational approach to trade and mixed macroeconomic signals have created an environment of volatility that undermines investor confidence across asset classes.

Many of the administration’s policy goals remain in progress. While the creation of a national SBR has been announced, there has yet to be evidence of active accumulation through budget-neutral strategies. Meanwhile, more than 70 crypto ETF filings, some of which include staking features, are still awaiting SEC approval. Perhaps most consequentially, progress on a stablecoin regulatory framework could modernize traditional payment rails and reinforce the dollar’s position in the global financial system.

In sum, the administration’s opening chapter has been one of high-speed changes, laying the groundwork for potential long-term reform, but its impact will ultimately depend on sustained follow-through in the months ahead.